03 - Risk, Uncertainty and Knowledge
2023-12-07
Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know.
We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns - the ones we don’t know we don’t know.
And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.
It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble…
… It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.
Frank Knight - Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (1921)
Quantifiable randomness
Probability etc.
Lack of quantifiable knowledge
Fundamental ignorance
1R: Left Red €100
1B: Left Black €100
1R: Left Red €100
2R: Right Red €100
1R: Red €100
2R: Black €100
1R: Red and Black €100
2R: Black and Yellow €100
What are we dealing with?
Quantify risks
Manage uncertainties
Thank You
mcooney@describedata.com
https://kaybenleroll.github.io/data_workshops/talk_cirdas_master_202311/